Tips to Estimate Main Advantages (Able Stockpile Example)

Download the spreadsheet template below:

Being able to confidently value a stock is essential in value investing. We need to be able to identify those 50 cent dollars and grab that margin of safety as it presents itself!

I hope this video gives you all a good example of Phil Town’s ‚Margin of Safety‘ valuation method.

Recommended Investing Books:
Rule One by Phil Town:

Payback Time by Phil Town:

The Intelligent Investor by Ben Graham:

The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai:

The Education of a Value Investor by Guy Spier:

Recommended Personal Finance/Entrepreneurship Books:
Rich Dad, Poor Dad by Robert Kiyosaki:

Tools of Titans by Tim Ferriss:

I am not a financial adviser. This video is for education and entertainment purposes only. Seek professional help before making any investment decisions.

20 Antworten auf „Tips to Estimate Main Advantages (Able Stockpile Example)“

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  2. Not to be hater…but I'm watching this on January 14, 2020, and AAPL never got anywhere near the 72.80. Also, I feel like there's so much room for error in the numbers you decided to use. Not saying I could do any better, I'm just saying the margin of error is so big that this method is almost useless?

  3. So if I have some money to invest right now, apple is way overpriced? It seems like almost all of the companies are overpriced now, so I should just hold my money and wait for the market to drop?

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  5. This is a little too simplistic and dangerous analysis technique. You might want to spend the time to perform a more thorough discounted cash flow analysis, considering the actual cost of capital and dividend growth valuation as well; it will give you more realistic insights and price targets.

  6. Hi Tom I downloaded your spreedsheet you need to make some corrections. Minimum rate of return is not subtracting correctly go to K13 that should be =L13*(1-B4) to correctly subtract the rate of return and J, I. H all the way back. Also margin of safety is not deducting correctly C14 should be =C13*(1-B5) to deduct the percentages 50% works for yours but try putting in 30%. Anyway thank you for the leg work itis a nice system. For viewers make sure to cross reference growth rates on MSN and Yahoo finance it's a very important number.

  7. Thanks, very easy to understand. I have a question, if I may: when you calculated the growth, you looked up from the analisys the 5 year growth rate and calculated as if it was annual. Why?

  8. Great Video – However, Good Luck to get Apple at that price Tom! Sometimes it is just good to pay a Fair price for a great company.
    This is what Charlie Munger has Taught Warren and this is why Warren invested billions into Apple this year.
    This Simple change of mindset has helped Warren transition from a "Cigar Butt" Guy to for a Stock. I bought mine at $142.00/share back in Jan 2019 so I believe I paid a fair price for a great company and getting a nice 118% return for my understanding of this rule.
    When the market corrects, of course you can apply more margin of safety as the risk is a lot more important in a stagnant or falling market.
    It definitely is important to know your margin of safety price, however you need to weigh in the likely hood of ever seeing this price. I know it is highly possible to see companies like this topple to 80-90% below current Pe Ratio's… so you simply double down on the way down, especially if you can see the company is actually making good money and at good margins…. in time the price will recover to higher than its last high… if it was any good a company in the first place. – Cheers Westy

  9. I think you can't just base on Analyst to value a stock because Analyst never on point about the expectation of the companies….They're mainly propaganda just to manipulating the stocks. In order for you to find the true value of the business I believe you have to base on your own expectation of the companies value rather than Analyst…

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  11. ……. This is the most naive & basic way to value a company. There's soooo much more that's needed.
    If ppl invest based on this then damnnn you guys need to go back to school

  12. Thanks Mate for showing how to calculate fair value of a stock. Question is how realistic is this calculation.
    When you calculated apple fair value, I believe in May 2019, Apple was trading at 189 and with 50% Margin of saftey your calculated fair value was $72.50. Now 7 months later Apple is at $310. with your calculation one would only wish and hope that apple come down to $72.50??.
    Well it seems like you will be watching the money train go by forever while others are making serious Money in Apple stock. Any thoughts of making the valuation of stock price more realistic especially for companies like APPL, FB, AMZN, GOOGL ,MSFT etc

  13. AAPL was at $72.50 in January 2013. So I went back and used the EPS, growth rate and P/E ratio from January 2013, and it turns out the 'intrinsic value' is approximately $21.17 !! I guess congratulations on never owning Apple shares? Tom, I appreciate the effort you put on creating this video, and I've read the book invested, I just believe this method is too conservative and works on prices of IPOs (I'd rather go to a Casino) or finding the gems hidden in the ash heap of a recession.

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